My midweek morning form The WFH reads:
• Measure it differently and inflation is behind us: Investors who think core inflation is falling but not fast enough for the Fed should be troubled by an alternative measure of price increases. Measure price changes in the US as Europe does, and inflation was already there in May. Measure them like the US does, and on Wednesday new numbers are predicted by economists to show much higher underlying inflation at 5% for June. (the wall street journal)
• There are no “sliding recessions”: You predicted a recession and it didn’t happen? Are you about to be interviewed by CNBC? Fear not, you can still say there has been a “continuing recession”. It’s like a free get out of jail card. Except . . . Slipping recessions do not exist. The fact that weakness in housing was followed by weakness in manufacturing and then some layoffs in tech means nothing if the overall economy continues to thrive. Allegations of continued recessions are only used as an excuse for failed macroeconomic predictions that stemmed from bad models. (The illusion of money)
• Insurers tap fund managers to seize opportunities in real estate and private credit markets: A recent surge in home construction has prompted insurers to seek investment opportunities in the single-family and multi-family residential sectors. (Investment Director)
• Municipalities won’t drive US economic growth, but they won’t hold it back either: State and local government economics matter a lot. Their spending is about one-tenth of US GDP. And municipalities employ nearly 20 million Americans, compared to about 3 million for the federal government (including the Postal Service), according to BLS data. (Financial Times Alphaville)
• Who employs your doctor? Increasingly, a private equity firm. Private equity firms own more than half of all specialists in certain US markets, a new study finds. (Result)
• Chris Miller, historian and author of “Chip War” In which I consult an expert on the battle to control the semiconductor industry. (Noahpinion)
• Why Threads’ Early Success May Fall Apart In Real Life: Mark Zuckerberg used the power of Meta to make Threads start quickly, but it may only work up to a point. (New York Times)
• Being excluded from your digital life is bad. Here’s how to avoid it. Prevent lockouts by using multiple forms of verification. (the wall street journal)
• Summer is here. Where are the fireflies? Nearly one in three firefly species in the United States and Canada could be at risk of extinction, firefly experts believe in a recent comprehensive assessment. Overseas surveys show declines from mangroves in Malaysia to grasslands in England. New research sheds light on how these ethereal insects struggle to thrive in the brilliantly lit world we’ve built around them. And the problem is bigger than just one type of bug. “Fireflies are the icons that tell you the habitat is in trouble.” (Washington Post)
• The Great Indiana Jones Adventure by Phoebe Waller-Bridge: Going from “Fleabag” to James Bond, “Indiana Jones” and “Tomb Raider” isn’t the most logical A-to-B move. So what do you think the people behind these projects bring to you, and does that match what you think you bring? (New York Times)
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Jenny Johnson, CEO of Franklin Templeton, which manages $1.5 trillion in client assets. She has been with FT since 1988 and has held senior positions in investment management, distribution, technology, operations and high net worth clients. Franklin Templeton oversees more than 9,000 employees and 1,300 investment professionals. Johnson is on the list of the most powerful women (Barron’s, Forbes, American Banker, etc.). She was CEO in February 2020.
Meta’s Copy Machine
Source: Axios
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