Although several branded drugs hold a significant share of the atrial fibrillation (Afib) market, the loss of patent exclusivity and the introduction of generics will cause this market to decline by 2032.
Medicines such as Pfizer (New York stock market :DFP) And Bristol-Myers Squibb (New York stock market :BMY) Eliquis (apixaban) and Bayer (OTCPK:BAYZF) and Johnson & Johnson (New York stock market :JNJ) Xarelto (rivaroxaban) are blockbuster medications used to treat atrial fibrillation. In 2022, Eliquis grossed around $18.3 billion in total, while Xarelto earned around $7.5 billion.
However, the Afib market is projected to decline at a CAGR of 1.3% from 2022 to 2032 across eight major markets, according to a new report from consulting and analytics firm GlobalData.
Since these new oral anticoagulants are the standard of care for stroke prevention in Afib, the introduction of generics will have a significant impact on the Afib drug market, GlobalData noted.
As it stands, the earliest a generic Eliquis could be available to patients in the United States is April 2028 following a September 2021 judgment. For Xarelto, the date is December 2024, according to DrugPatentWatch.com.
THE GlobalData report noted that by 2032, several new therapies for AFib are expected to enter the market. The firm has highlighted three Factor XI (“FXI”) and FXIa inhibitors that will be the biggest engine of growth: abelacimab, asundexian and milvexian. All are in phase 3.
The appeal of these new drugs is that they can prevent the occurrence of thrombotic events without increasing the risk of bleeding.
These new drugs could appeal to a significant percentage of Afib patients — about 40%, according to GlobalData, who are not taking blood thinners due to bleeding issues.
“According to key opinion leaders surveyed by GlobalData, the shortcoming of many current antiarrhythmic drugs is that they rarely impact the causative mechanisms of disease,” Murray said.
“They agreed that a significant unmet need in the management of (Afib) will be the development of safer and more effective rhythm-control drugs that directly interdict key underlying drivers of (Afib) progression, such as atrial remodeling – an area of drug development that remains largely untouched.”